Global Macro · Week of August 26, 2026
Failed Treasury interventions, Warsh's debut, and a walled-in trade regime that helps China
- Bessent's Doubled Buybacks Fail as 30-Year Yields Hold Above 5.3% on Fiscal, Not Liquidity, FearsThe 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.194% the moment Bessent's Treasury announced it would more than double its long-bond buybacks. It stayed there for exactly one day.
- Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut: Markets Price 39% October Hike With No Legible Fed SignalTwo forecasters looking at the same Fed have arrived at opposite prescriptions, and the gap between them is the whole story.
- The Tariff Wall That Backfires: Asia-Pacific Acquiescence Leaves China the Main BeneficiaryEdward Kawas started dancing.
- Washington's $1.5B+ Minerals Push: Pentagon Offtake and DOE Battery Bets Race a Years-Long Clock$2,050 per kilogram for terbium. $575 for dysprosium. $110 for neodymium and praseodymium. Those are not prices anyone paid. They are floors — numbers the U.S. government has promised to top up whenever the market clears…
- Equity-Dependent Growth Meets Blunted Policy: How AI Capex and Money-Market Flows Fuel a Fragile RallyIn the first quarter of 2026, AI capex reportedly contributed more than a third of US GDP (per Chartbook/Tan Kai Xian). That is not a metaphor. It is a national accounts line item, and it means the American economy has q…
Threads we are following
- Whether the Fed signals a full Operation Twist at Jackson Hole and Warsh's keynote, and what its reaction function actually is.
- Whether the 39/31 bimodal split still persists a week after Warsh's speech, confirming the market has been forced to author its own reaction function
- Whether the next wave of US auto plants ends up running Chinese-owned or CATL-derived battery chemistry
- Whether China's component visa denials to Indian robotics firms escalate into a broader supply-chain chokehold before Western separation capacity comes online in 2028
- Whether the next Nvidia print clears the ~$91B revenue bar, and how the AI 33 and the $500B GPU-financing asset class react if it disappoints
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