Global Macro · Week of September 2, 2026
Warsh's hike, a Treasury-Fed rift, tariff-law collapse, and AI's uneven labor bite
- Warsh's Hawkish Turn Pushes September Hike Odds Past 60% as Banks SplitTwo people looked at the same speech this week and reached opposite conclusions about whether it contained new information.
- Bessent vs. the Bond Market: Buybacks, Maturity Swaps, and a Treasury-Fed Rift Test the Safe AssetStart with the contradiction the Treasury has to hold in its head.
- Courts Gut IEEPA and Section 122 Tariffs as G20 Backs US 19-1, Then Washington Hits CanadaHere is the thing most people got backwards this month.
- AI Is a Baseline Tool in 80% of Jobs, But Only Coders Visibly Lose WorkOver 80% of U.S. occupations now have at least 1 in 5 workers using AI — But Only Coders Are Visibly Losing Work
- Rising US Yields Whipsaw EM Flows as Iran Tension Drives a Dollar Safe-Haven BidHere is the contradiction most allocators haven't fully priced: two of the calmest emerging-market bond stories of the summer are pointing in opposite directions, and both are being driven by the same shock.
Threads we are following
- Whether a soft August CPI in the week before the meeting lowers the hike odds or leaves them stuck
- Whether the Sept. 9–Nov. 4 buyback operations move the long yield at all, or the round-trip pattern repeats as a Warsh-led Fed leans the other way.
- Whether the Section 122 150-day window expires in July without any successor authority, leaving tariffs legally stranded
- Whether entry-level and routine-task roles become the next legible displacement signal in BLS data
- Whether September Fed pricing (now ~65% hike odds) holds if Brent retreats from $94 and the Treasury anchor eases
One issue a week. Free.
sift. reads hundreds of sources so you don't have to, and sends one issue you can actually finish. No daily noise. Unsubscribe anytime.