Global Macro · Week of September 9, 2026
Fed hike week arrives as buyback sizing, yen selling, and dollar plumbing collide
- September Hike Week: Split Prediction Markets Meet the Buyback Sizing Test"I'm not doing QE," Bessent said in Texas on Tuesday, and then, describing the August bond market: a "fever," a narrative that "the United States would be unable to service its debt" — "absurd, but it became the dominant…
- Japan Sells Treasurys to Defend the Yen as the Long End Breaks 20-Year HighsHere is the contradiction almost nobody reconciles: on the same September calendar page, the U.S. Treasury is trying to hold long-end yields down while its single largest foreign creditor is selling the exact bonds Washi…
- Policy Whiplash, Not Tariffs, Repels Investment as US Trade Deficit Widens to $88.6B"Come make your product in America," Trump told business leaders at Davos, framing tariffs as a friendly nudge: build here, skip the duties.
- Asian Heavy Industry Builds US Beachheads as Supply Chains Regionalize on Uncertain GroundTwo officials said two things at the same groundbreaking, and only one of them can be right.
- Yuan Momentum Stalls While Dollar Reserve Decline Proves Concentrated, Not SystemicTwo numbers are doing all the work in the de-dollarization story, and both are being read backwards.
Threads we are following
- Does the buyback sequence actually move the long yield, or does the round-trip pattern repeat when a hawkish Fed lines up against a soft $4B print?
- Whether Tokyo's next yen intervention forces another wave of long-end Treasury selling into Bessent's expiring buyback window
- Whether courts strike down the Smoot-Hawley-based Canada tariffs and force yet another authority-swap
- Whether the 50 percent US steel tariff holds steady through the 2029 commissioning window, or shifts before the concrete cures
- Whether CIPS volume gains persist and widen the divergence from SWIFT-visible yuan flows over the coming quarters
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