Global Macro · Week of September 16, 2026
Warsh hikes into oil shock as 5% yields and capital wars collide
- Warsh's First Hike Meets Oil Above $100 as Wall Street FlipsCME FedWatch had the odds of a quarter-point hike Wednesday at 92.3%, as of 12:37 p.m. CT on Tuesday. At Jackson Hole, the same market assigned it 56%. Waller's comments moved it to 55%. September 10 it was 62%. Then CPI…
- Treasury 10-Year Breaches 5% as Bessent's Bond-Market Diagnosis FailsThe most important number in markets this week isn't 5%. It's $6 billion against $32 trillion.
- Capital Wars Risk Rises as Stablecoins Deepen Dollar Treasury DemandThe thing most readers get wrong about stablecoins is that they are a crypto story. The Bank of England’s Carolyn Wilkins laid out the opposite case on Sept. 15: dollar-pegged tokens are now a structural arm of US Treasu…
- Trade Enforcement Becomes Legal Triage as Tariffs Reroute ProductionThe tariff arithmetic says Vietnam. The shipping manifests increasingly say China.
- AI's Physical Bottlenecks: Transformers, Chip Export Controls, Critical MineralsThe most advanced technology contest in human history has stalled in a queue outside a machine shop.
Threads we are following
- Will Warsh's press conference clarify the path beyond Wednesday, or leave December and 2027 hike pricing unresolved?
- Whether the Fed's September 16 decision and the oil/Iran trajectory break the term-premium loop or accelerate it.
- Whether foreign regulators respond to dollar stablecoin adoption with capital controls before US reserve rules finalize.
- Whether courts or a reissued emergency declaration will stabilize the legal basis for tariff enforcement.
- Whether 2026 capacity announcements for transformers and turbines start translating into shorter delivery queues.
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