An oil shock breaks the Fed's stalemate as bond markets and porous tariffs reprice

Threads we are following

• Whether the White House deploys its retired jawbone line or seeks a Hormuz settlement to relieve term-premium pressure
• Whether the September meeting resolves the bimodal path or the committee stays frozen with no legible signal
• Whether the administration's AI-at-the-border enforcement narrows the $112 billion China–US trade data gap or the arbitrage gradient simply reroutes it
• Whether the next US auto plants will be Chinese-owned, running CATL battery chemistry, and how Washington frames that contradiction
• Whether other red states follow Texas and New York in pausing data-center construction, closing the last release valve for the capex buildout