Global Macro · Week of July 22, 2026
War escalation and tariff inflation trap the Fed while capital rewires around chips and steel
- The Iran Blockade Shock: Why Gold Fell, the Euro Rose, and the Dollar Didn't Flee to SafetySixteen of the twenty-one ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on July 14 hugged Iran's coast, taking the channel Tehran approves. Five went dark or found other routes. Not one followed the US-backed passage close to …
- Tightening Without a Hike: Warsh's Fed and the Passive-Overtightening RiskArticle — "Tightening Without a Hike: Warsh's Fed, a 5.19% Long Bond, and the Passive-Overtightening Risk": Article — "Tightening Without a Hike: Warsh's Fed, a 5.19% Long Bond, and the Passive-Overtightening Risk": Bill…
- Tariff Pass-Through Is Compounding, Not Fading: Firms Plan More Price Hikes a Year OnHere is the contradiction that should not exist.
- Creative Coercion: Halved Aluminum Tariffs, Defense De-Risking, and a Section 338 Strike on CanadaArticle — "Creative Coercion: Halved Aluminum Tariffs for Onshoring, Defense De-Risking, and a Section 338 Strike on Canada": Article — "Creative Coercion: Halved Aluminum Tariffs for Onshoring, Defense De-Risking, and a…
- TSMC's $100B Arizona Bet Against a Chip Concentration Risk That Scales Faster Than the FabsTwo sources in this pile are looking at the same $265 billion and reading it in opposite directions.
Threads we are following
- Whether marine war-risk premiums stay elevated or normalize will decide if the inverted haven trade persists.
- Whether second-half growth slows enough to prove the 5.19% long bond overtightened — and whether Warsh finds any lever to talk it back down.
- Whether stable tariff scheduling actually deactivates the trickle-up ratchet, or firms keep the option-to-accelerate switched on
- Whether courts accept a century-dormant Section 338 finding to override USMCA rules of origin on Canadian autos
- Whether US onshoring can outrun the talent-and-timeline bottleneck before Arizona reaches full ramp
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