Global Macro · Week of July 15, 2026
A soft CPI collides with an unresolved Fed, tariff pipelines, and critical-minerals scrambles
- The Soft June CPI vs. Sticky Core PCE: Why the Fed's Next Move Stays a Coin FlipLast week, the open question was whether a hot July CPI print would back the Fed into a corner and force a hike. This week, the opposite arrived — and it reopened the same coin flip from the other side.
- Hormuz Chokepoint: Refined-Fuel Scarcity, the Diesel Spike, and Multi-Year WorkaroundsLook at oil futures and you'd think the crisis is over. Prices "suggest we're back to normal," as Adam Tooze reportedly put it this week — Brent has settled, the panic bid has drained out. Meanwhile prediction markets ca…
Threads we are following
- Whether September 'No change' holds above its 53.9% average or leaks into the hike rung as oil and the July 30 core PCE print land
- Whether DP World's Fujairah port breaks ground and whether Bab el-Mandeb stays open to Yanbu-loaded tankers
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