Global Macro · Week of July 8, 2026
Warsh's hawkish debut collides with an Iran energy shock and fraying trade orthodoxy
- Warsh's First FOMC: The Hawkish Pivot, the Dying Dot Plot, and the July CPI TestHere is the contradiction most people missed. On June 17, the Federal Reserve did nothing to interest rates — held them at 3.50%–3.75%, exactly as everyone expected — and the S&P 500 reportedly turned in its worst "Fed d…
- The Iran Shock: Energy, the Dollar's Safe-Haven Surge, and the Odd Risk DisconnectThere is a contradiction sitting in plain sight, and almost everyone reading the tape gets it backwards.
- Inputs, Not Goods: How the US-China Contest Over Chips and AI Rewrites Trade War LogicWashington is pulling two levers at once and calling them the same tool.
- The Talent Bottleneck: Immigration Restrictions vs. the Chip Reshoring Bet"Only about 37% of those are getting the visas, so the remainder of that, which is 63%, they have to figure out what to do with these people."
- Reading Bank Fragility: 3,000 Runs, LLM Evidence, and Steady 2026 Coverage RatiosSixty-three percent. That is the probability a bank in the lowest decile of fundamentals fails once a run hits it.
Threads we are following
- The July 15 core CPI print: does a hot reading trigger immediate hawkish repricing that Warsh reads back as confirmation?
- Whether the Fed's reaction function becomes readable enough to anchor the dollar's rate-driven premium, or the information vacuum widens
- Whether reports of China manufacturing advanced chips around EUV at scale prove out, collapsing the chokepoint half of US strategy
- Whether any 2026 legislative push raises the H-1B cap or exempts semiconductor engineers before the first Arizona and Texas fabs hit full production ramp.
- Whether the Q2 2026 coverage ratio print confirms clean loan books or reveals reserves lagging accumulating credit losses
One issue a week. Free.
sift. reads hundreds of sources so you don't have to, and sends one issue you can actually finish. No daily noise. Unsubscribe anytime.