AI capex ignites a third inflation wave as credit, currencies, and supply chains reprice risk

Threads we are following

• Whether the shadow-bank exposure beneath the $100B in new tech debt and off-balance-sheet project vehicles becomes visible in credit markets
• Whether any of the seven letters of intent convert into an actual EPC construction contract with committed sites and utilities
• Whether the Senate Banking members' warning forces the Fed to reverse its 30 percent supervision-staff cut before more underwriting losses surface
• Whether the US income balance tips decisively negative as rates stay elevated, turning exorbitant privilege into a recurring cost
• Whether the Section 301 forced-labor tariff proposal survives legal challenge and how firms price the audit burden if it is finalized before 2027