Global Macro · Week of August 5, 2026
Warsh's opaque Fed meets a softening labor market as decoupling stays cosmetic
- Warsh Holds, Cuts Guidance, and Shrinks the Calendar as a Third of the FOMC Wants HikesNearly 40% is the number that matters, and it isn't a forecast.
- The Labor Market Cracks Beneath a Fed Fighting Inflation: Participation Drop Masks Weak Job CreationDan Coda spent more than 300 hours over six months, submitted dozens of applications, heard back on about fifteen roles, and cleared multiple interview rounds. He got nothing. In June, after a conversation with his wife …
- Tariffs Redrew Trade Routes but Barely Cut Chinese Value-Added: The Decoupling That Wasn'tMinus 7 and minus 2. Those are the two numbers, and the gap between them is the entire decoupling story.
- Decoupling by Decree: DPA Minerals, FCC Robot Bans, and the Largest UFLPA ExpansionHere is the contradiction most people miss: the same government that just ordered defense contractors to stop buying Chinese samarium can barely make any samarium itself.
- Washington Joins Tokyo to Prop Up the Yen Even as AI Inflows Keep the Dollar StrongRead the two Bessent quotes back to back and you find the whole policy sitting in the gap between them.
Threads we are following
- Whether Warsh formally cuts FOMC meetings from eight to six, and how markets reprice term premium if he does
- Whether July's payrolls confirm June's prime-age participation exit as a trend the rebenchmark can no longer explain away.
- Whether US-India tariff negotiators start measuring value-added content instead of bilateral import share
- Which pressure valve Washington opens first — extending the 2029 robot grandfather clause, clearing the ASM/VAC allied acquisitions, or slipping the January 2027 tungsten deadline.
- Whether the BOJ delivers a rate hike and Takaichi commits to a credible fiscal path — the two levers Washington cannot pull.
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