Capital, capacity, and geography reorganize around memory scarcity and the packaging bottleneck

Threads we are following

• Whether Vera Rubin's Q3 2026 volume ramp holds its projected demand curve, or a token-growth air-pocket strands SK Hynix's freshly financed EUV capacity
• Whether replicated offtake guarantees retain credible remedies once a demand correction hits, or if the structure has made a downturn uncontainable
• Whether Unimicron and its peers can push organic-substrate panel yields from 50 percent toward the high 80s ahead of Intel's 2028 TPU commitments
• Whether Arizona can staff and run advanced fabs at Taiwanese yields — the talent-and-workforce question deferred here
• Whether the anticipated wave of National Security Act prosecutions follows this first corporate conviction, and whether Tokyo Electron appeals.