The same company, on the same day, said two things that don't fit together.
Oracle told CNBC that "Project Jupiter remains on our planned schedule" and that it is "fully committed to New Mexico and confident in our path forward." It also sent a force majeure notice to the project's developer.
Both statements are technically true. Only one of them tells you what Oracle actually expects to happen.
Both statements are technically true. Only one of them tells you what Oracle actually expects to happen.
Last week we covered the concentration risk sitting inside Oracle's capex story — the $400 billion OpenAI commitment, the guidance that rested on data centers that don't exist yet, and co-CEO Clay Magouyrk telling analysts on Sept. 10 that Project Jupiter would not affect fiscal 2027 revenue or earnings guidance. The week before, we followed the debt-financed AI trade and what happens when lenders start reading the leases.
This week, the leases started reading back.
The notice went from Oracle to a unit of Blue Owl Capital, which owns STACK Infrastructure, the developer building the 1,400-acre campus in southern New Mexico. Bloomberg was first to report it.
Oracle shares fell more than 3% on the news, with Bloomberg pegging the intraday drop at 6.4% — making Oracle the worst performer in the S&P 500 that day — before closing 3.3% to 3.5% lower. Blue Owl closed down 3.6%. A gauge of Oracle's credit risk hit a record high.
Here is the part most readers get wrong.
Force majeure is not an exit ramp. Oracle cannot terminate the lease under any circumstances, according to a source familiar with the matter. It is not walking away from Project Jupiter.
What it is doing is narrower and more interesting: buying itself wig