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Books & Ideas · Week of September 14, 2026

France's Heatwave Deaths and the Air-Conditioning Paradox in a Warming Europe

France has long treated its aversion to air conditioning as a form of virtue. Shutters closed at midday, buildings designed to breathe, a cultural refusal of the American chill. This summer, that virtue became a body count.

During the heatwave that smothered the country in late June, more than a thousand people died. The fuller accounting is worse. Santé publique France estimates 5,764 excess deaths between June 17 and July 2 — a 36 percent increase over expected mortality. Two-thirds of the dead were 75 or older.

The numbers arrive with a paradox attached. Air conditioning is becoming increasingly essential to the preservation of human life in extreme heat, even as it continues to heat the planet, putting the most vulnerable in greater peril. France is now being forced to confront both halves of that sentence at once.

Air conditioning is becoming increasingly essential to the preservation of human life in extreme heat, even as it continues to heat the planet, putting the most vulnerable in greater peril.

The country has the lowest air-conditioning penetration of any major Western economy: roughly 25 percent of households. Spain and Italy sit at 50 percent. The United States and Japan at 90. That gap is not incidental. It is the shape of the disaster.

In Île-de-France, excess deaths rose 81 percent. In Centre-Val de Loire, 63 percent. In one Orleans funeral home, the director rented five refrigerated containers to store bodies arriving at three times the normal rate. He had to absorb overflow from Paris, two hours away, because the capital's services had collapsed.

The dead were not random. They were old, and they were hot, and they were in buildings designed on the assumption that French summers would stay mild. That assumption is gone. Europe is the fastest-warming continent, and heat has killed 200,000 people across it in four years.

· · ·

The comparison with the United States is brutal. Heat caused about 44,000 deaths in Europe last year. In the US, with near-universal air conditioning, the figure was 2,000. The difference is not climate. It is infrastructure.

But here the story stops being a simple parable about a country that refused to adapt. France's resistance to la clim was not mere stubbornness. It was a considered position, held by the environmental left, that air conditioning treats the symptom while worsening the disease.

The critique is not wrong. Air conditioners run on electricity, and outside France's nuclear-powered grid, that often means burning fossil fuels. Their refrigerants are potent greenhouse gases that leak. They dump hot air into streets, and some studies suggest this can raise city temperatures by two or three degrees. They make the heat worse for the people who cannot afford them.

That last point is the heart of it. Air conditioning is not a public good. It is a private one, and its benefits are distributed by income. Marine Le Pen's National Rally now calls for a nationwide "plan clim" — subsidised units for every school and hospital, and €20 billion in interest-free loans to let 30 to 40 million households install cooling. The Greens, who once called AC the worst possible response to climate change, have conceded that some of it is inevitable.

"There are places where we just can't do without it now," said Marine Tondelier, head of the Ecologists party, breaking what her own movement treated as a taboo. Valérie Pécresse, the conservative president of the Paris regional council, put it more bluntly: "The state operates under an anti-clim ideology."

Critics call the RN plan opportunistic and uncosted — and they are right that the populist right was the last to recognise climate change. But opportunism and accuracy are not mutually exclusive. The hospitals and schools and care homes that killed people this summer were not killed by ideology alone. They were killed by underinvestment.

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Only 14 percent of French schools had air conditioning. Many lacked shutters, curtains, or windows that could open. A poll published by the Health Ministry in 2025 found that 41 percent of elderly care facilities had no communal air-conditioned space at all. Fewer than 10 percent had units in residents' rooms.

In one care home, staff gathered wheelchair-bound residents into the TV room — the only cooled space — and hung white bedsheets over windows to blunt the sun. The chief nurse, Béatrice Noyer, said she no longer looks at the weather forecast. "It depresses me," she said.

In Paris, an air-conditioning technician named Dhafer Kahri worked with his AirPods in, the phone ringing several times an hour, turning down jobs he didn't want. He preferred apartments with balconies, because a balcony is often the only place a unit can be installed — hidden from neighbours, preservationists, and the city. It is not a question of supply. It is a question of permission.

A new hospital under construction in Nantes will have air conditioning in only half its rooms, provoking fury from medical unions. "In the environmental context, we should have la clim everywhere," said Olivier Terrien of the CGT.

The bind is real. France must invest for extreme heat while cutting a deficit and maintaining defence spending, with an ageing population that is most at risk. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has promised hundreds of millions of euros for cooling hospitals and nursing homes. The Greens launched a failed no-confidence measure over his handling of the heatwave, saying it wasn't enough. They are probably right, and the money still has to come from somewhere.

François Bourdillon, who led France's public health agency from 2016 to 2019, framed the lesson cleanly. After 2003, which contributed to nearly 15,000 excess deaths and blindsided the government, France built an alert system. "We were blind," he said. "We're no longer blind."

"The lesson of 2026: Well, it's not enough. We are in a sort of dystopia in which we can deal with the effects of the heatwave but we forget the structural issues."

That is the paradox in its final form. France knows how to warn people about heat. It does not know how to house them. A warning system saves lives at the margins. The buildings decide the rest.

And the solution to the buildings is the thing that makes the problem worse. There is no version of this where France cools its hospitals and schools and care homes without burning more energy and releasing more heat into the streets. There is only a version where it does so anyway, and tries to make the cooling public rather than private, and hopes the arithmetic holds.

The alternative is what happened in June: a country that was right about air conditioning, and dead because of it.

Sources

Researched from 9 sources. Primary source: x.com

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